Why New Zealand might not win the world cup

So, we've reached the final.  As expected New Zealand are there and just like 1987 they're playing the French.  The French have been far from convincing in this world cup - the fact that they're in the final is a surprise to match that of England reaching the final in 2007!

David Kirk kisses the trophy in 1987

Made to look pedestrian against New Zealand in the group stage, they went on to a shock loss against Tonga amid stories of discontentment amongst the camp.  In the quarter finals they got past a sluggish, poor English side who still nearly came back to take the win.  Then in the semi final they managed to beat a team, cruelly reduced to 14 men for a vast majority of the match by a mere point.  Lets face it, with better execution Wales probably should have won, irregardless of being a man down for an hour.

The challenge that pretty much gave France a passage into the Final

New Zealand meanwhile breezed through their group, eased past a dogged Argentina side and then strangled the life out of Australia in a semi-final they never looked like losing.

So, New Zealand all the way then - job done.  Even some bookmakers have already started paying out on New Zealand lifting the Webb-Ellis cup. 

Now before I start off this segment let it be known that I too can't really see anything but an All Black win.  But I wanted to be a little different so am going to look at why it could be the French lifting the cup come Sunday.

Let's start with the age old fact that New Zealand have choked in every tournament since 1987.  That's a lot of strangulation!  This is the biggest match since they've played since 1987, the weight of expectation is huge and with them being so overwhelming favourites it probably makes the weight even heavier.  So they could be prime to choke!

How apt!

The injuries have been mounting up - noticably to Dan Carter.  When he went down with a groin injury the whole of New Zealand started to play with those worry beads a little more, whilst the whole of the rest of the world were given a little more hope!  The lack of experience behind Dan Carter was suddenly exposed and all that pressure was heaped onto Colin Slade.  Slade did ok but at times looked a little like a rabbit in the headlights.  And then he too went down with a similar injury and suddenly they were down to their third string fly half!  Aaron Cruden will wear that famous number 10 jersey come the final.  Against Australia he looked alright and showed some flashes of brilliance - but this is a world cup final, a whole new ball game so to speak.

Apparently the great Ritchie McCaw is also injured.  Well he was superb against the Australians and if thats him injured then I'll take him in the England side any day of the week and twice on Sunday!

McCaw back to his best

Turning now to the French.  As I've said, they've been far from convincing, no one is backing them and everyone is saying they might as well not turn up.  Wouldn't it be typical of the French to turn up on Sunday and shock the world?  Within the squad they've got the skill set and the brute force to put up a challenge and had they not been so ordinary for the last few weeks then people would probably be saying that they'd stand a half decent chance.

Could they ?

As I said I don't see New Zealand losing this time, but there are reasons why they might.  If this was being played in any other country other than New Zealand then the doubts would probably be even bigger.  But if you're French - there is some hope!