Tuesday 4 October 2011

Knockout time!!

Well, we've arrived at the end of the group stages and from here on in it's knockout rugby.

So, what did we all make of the knockout stages???  Well if, like me, you're an England supporter you've probably not really been enjoying it that much!  Still they won every match, scored a few trys and conceded a few less!!  A conversation at the end of a meeting I had today compared the England rugby team to past German football teams - no one really likes how they play and because of that they don't get much credit but they're normally there or there abouts come the latter stages of a tournament.  I guess I'd take a dull tense win over a tight exciting loss.

Team of the tournament so far has to be Ireland, who managed to bugger up my earlier predictions!!  A great performance to get the win against Australia and a strong performance versus Italy to seal their position at the top of the group.  New Zealand we all expected to get through without any hassle.


Duds of the tournament so far has to be France who have not looked anything like a top rugby playing nation.  They've limped through to the quarter finals after losing to Tonga and have lots of infighting which isn't going to improve their situation any.


So what will happen in the quarter finals - here's my view:

Ireland v Wales
Wales ran Ireland close for my team of the tournament so far.  An injection of youth into their team seems to have done the trick since a disappointing Six Nations.  They were unlucky not to beat South Africa in their opening match, but have followed that up with some convincing wins, none more so then their thrashing of Fiji at the weekend.

As I said above, Ireland have looked good in the tournament so far.  Sean O'Brien has been the hit that everyone thought he would.  I enjoyed their forwards performance versus Italy last weekend which was no doubt brought on by Nick Mallet's stupid remarks about Italy being superior in the scrum.  Come on mate, Ireland have got a class set of forwards who would have the ability to challenge most teams front eight - firing them up anymore is just silly!!


This is probably the tightest of all the matches to call but I'm going to give it to the Irish.  I think they're slightly more battle hardened which will just about give them the edge over youthful exuberance that the Welsh currently offer.  On this form though watch out for Wales in the 2012 Six Nations.

England v France
This one should be a little more straight forward to call simply because I don't think that the French are "all there" when it comes to their tournament thus far.


There is a little nagging doubt in my head though and it goes a little something like this - France haven't beaten England for quite a while (and certainly not in a world cup) - is it about time they did?  Also, France are playing so badly that wouldn't it be just like them to turn up and beat England?  Lastly, France love beating England - they may just get it together enough to beat them.

So, straight forward its not.  England have looked sluggish in attack though pretty good in defence and the penalty count was better versus Scotland.  I'll let me heart decide here and go with an England win

(NB - this gives us a semi-final of Ireland v England which for me, on a personal point of view is a lose lose sitation.  If England win I get it in the neck from the wife, we'll probably win via some dodgy decision and I'll never hear the end of it from a lot of Irish acquaintances.  And if Ireland win I'll be pissed off that England have lost and then never hear the end of it from a lot of Irish acquaintances!!).



Australia v South Africa
This is another tough one to call.  Bar the result against Ireland, Australia have been playing well, and with David Pocock now back in the team they could improve even further.  I still think they've got a very good chance of winning the whole thing - though my confidence in them probably isn't as high as it was before the whole thing kicked off.


South Africa meanwhile are also playing pretty well, though not spectacularly.  The loss of Francois Steyn for the rest of the tournament is a big one though - he's been pretty much their star performer throughout the group stage.  The South African forwards had a tough match against Wales and I don't think they're the unit they once were.  Behind the scrum I now don't see much that I think would really worry a top international team that much - Habana is not the same player he was four years ago.

So that means I'm going to plump for an Australia win, though I wouldn't be shocked if I were wrong!!

New Zealand v Argentina
Probably the easiest of all the matches to call!  Losing Dan Carter is a devestating loss to the All Blacks.  Slade is good but he's not got anywhere near enough experience to lead the back line.  If ever there was a time to ignore the normal rules and pick up the phone to Nick Evans it's probably now for Graham Henry.

Even without the majestical Carter, the All Blacks will have enough to beat Argentina.  Whilst they're not as good as they were four years ago Argentina have shown that they're still a force to be reckoned with.  Lets face it, England were lucky to beat them and against Scotland, Argentina were the better team and deserved their win.  New Zealand will be too powerful up front and even without Carter, too dynamic, quick and explosive in the backs.  Sonny Bill Williams is well on his way to being one of the players of the tournament so far - he's been simply brilliant.  I keep thinking sooner or later one of those offloads will go wrong - but they never seem to.  I'd almost be inclined to try him at fly half!

So, thats that.  Semi finals will look like this:
Ireland v England (shudder)
Australia v New Zealand

North against South come the final.  Lots of talk about how great that is - but worth bearing in mind there's only ever been one final that has been a southern hemisphere exclusive (South Africa vs New Zealand in 1995) so it shouldn't be that big deal!

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