What to do with the so called minnows?

Realistically at the start of a world cup most people who know anything about rugby (even those who don’t know much at all) could predict who would qualify from which group.  True, saying who would qualify in what position would be a little more difficult – but not a lot, and then even if there was a match that went against form, it’s only a matter of the two qualifying teams swapping places (Ireland andAustralia for example after Saturday’s epic).

However, increasingly, the so called minnows are starting to cause more and more problems for the established nations.  This can only be a good thing as more and more nations take up the game and start to invest more resources behind it.  Fair play to the IRB for investing cash into Georgian rugby as in Georgia the growth of rugby is outstripping the growth in football.  And with it, Georgia are becoming a harder team to beat – as demonstrated by both Scotland and Englandthis week.  Were it not for the fact that Georgia had to play twice in one week (a disgrace in itself) then I think the score line on Sunday would have been a lot less flattering to England.

So this all begs the questions – what happens to these nations once the spotlight of the world cup has gone?  After the 2007 world cup there were a massive amount of calls for Argentina to be included in either the six or tri nations.  As it is from next year the Tri Nations becomes the Quad Nations or the Four Nations depending on what they decide to call it.  Playing South Africa, New Zealand and Australia every year is only going to help improve Argentina and I’d expect a lot of Argentineans to start playing for club sides down there rather than in the Northern Hemisphere.  But what happens to the other emerging nations?

 

In Europe something needs to be done with Georgia.  Increasingly their players are playing a big part in European club rugby – their flanker Mamuka Gorgodze was named the best foreign player in the French Top 14 last year.  That’s some stiff competition he’s up against remember, and on Sunday he showed exactly why – he’s was everywhere on the pitch, so much so that I think the commentator must have got fed up saying his name!  I’m not quite sure how he didn’t get the man of the match.  The more they improve at their current rate then the more they’ll walk over every team in the European Nations Cup with only Russia and Romania likely to give them anything close to a decent game.  So, we have to ask if they’ll ever be allowed into the Six Nations?  I hope so but knowing how much the individual rugby boards like change (the RFU especially!) I can’t see this happening for a long time to come – which is a great shame.

Romania and Russia wouldn’t be too far off joining Georgia for a claim to be in the Northern Hemisphere’s premier competition.  All this of course will be countered that it would mean too many games for the players – and I have a tendency to agree, but wouldn’t it be great to see more nations’ playing the game and this seems like the only sensible suggestion in European rugby.  At some point it has to happen – otherwise there simply isn’t any point in the IRB investing money into the smaller rugby nations.

That brings us on the Pacific Islanders and this is a massive quandary that I’m semi tempted not to even speak about!!  Whilst they’re home is on one side of the world, a majority of their top players are plying their trade in Europe.  The autumn internationals seem to be their only opportunity outside of a world cup when they get to play serious test rugby – they again need a more regular challenge.  Once upon a time, European teams used to go there on tour but that doesn’t seem to happen anymore and is probably the only way that these teams are going to get more test rugby.

As for the US and Canada – they’ve both shown that they have potential but now the Churchill Cup has ended they’re probably not going to get as much regular competition then they once did.  They’re being included on the IRB Test calendar but, like the Islanders I can’t see many sides making the trip there – just like few sides go over to Argentina.

If the IRB is serious about “spreading the gospel of rugby” then the teams that do take up the call need to be included in the premier tournaments – or at least know what they have to do to get included.  And with that, the individual national rugby boards need to open their eyes to the potential that new competition could bring – not hide away, safe and secure away from change and fearing that they might have to share their pennies with other nations (I’m specifically looking at the RFU here who I fear will be the biggest obstacle to getting the Six Nations expanded).

The Knockout Stages!

Seeing as the weekend is approaching and will be full of early mornings watching rugby and afternoon naps I thought I'd also crack through the knockout games this afternoon.  So from the group predictions the quarter final line up looks like this:

• Australia v Wales
• England v France
• South Africa v Ireland
• New Zealand v Argentina

Some tasty matches there!!  All of this is caveatted by the fact that injuries are going to occur.  Due to the fact I have no psychic powers what so ever I can't predict who will be fit and who won't so I'm working on the basis that each team will be able to field it's strongest team.  But an injury to Dan Carter, Brian O'Driscoll or Jonny Wilkinson or any other key player and there could be a change in verdict!  So lets start from the top

Australia v Wales
Wales I think get here by the skin of their teeth after a tough set of group, they're likely to be bruised and battered but all battle hardened.  Australia have had a tough match against Ireland but I think they'll be free scoring and soaring in the over confidence normally afforded to Aussies!  I think Australia will win this, there'll be a bit of a battle up front but I don't think Wales will be able to contain Quade-Cooper and co behind the scrum

England v France
A battle of the northern hemisphere here.  England have a pretty decent record over France in world cups beating them in 1991, 2003 and 2007.  France look strong going into the world cup but the old cliche of not knowing which France team turns up nags at the back of my brain.  England's defence has looked strong in warm up games and if the centre partnership between Tindall and Tuilagi does blossom then defence is only going to get stronger as well as having a lot of balast in midfield to run over the French.  If Jonny remains fit (which we all know is a fairly big if) then I think England get this one, just.  I'll probably be watching this one from behind the sofa!

South Africa v Ireland
Another hummdinger of a match against two sides that some are saying are set to under achieve in the world cup.  I don't buy that.  I think both have got enough quality and experience to threaten any team and this makes for an intriguining quarter final.  On home turf Ireland have always done pretty well against South Africa and it's that that's swaying me towards an Ireland win.  I've a gut feeling that by the time this match roles around, Ireland will be in a good place.  I hope O'Driscoll gets match fit (as I don't believe he currently is) and stays fit - if he does, I think Ireland can win this and progress.

New Zealand v Argentina
Easiest of the quarters to call.  New Zealand.  I'd love to say Argentina but it's never going to happen.

So - from there the semi final line up is thus:

• Australia v England
• Ireland v New Zealand

Australia v England
Heart v head for me here.  I got Australia in the sweepstake at work, it's probably the first time I've done a sweepstake and been in with a chance!!  And that's where I have to go with on my prediction.  Australia have too much creativity, flair and dynamism.  Their scrum is much much better than four years ago, even last year so I don't think England can boss that area of the field as much (though I still think England are better up front).  If this core group of players maintains the progression they've shown over the last 18 months then in 2015 they're in with a huge chance of winning, but not this year

Ireland v New Zealand
Are they going to choke?  They've breazed through the Pool matches and the quarter final, is now the time that the traditional chokers make their appearance.  All of Ireland (and most of the rugby world I'd say) will be hoping so.  If the key players are fit, then no, they're not choking.  They're going through to a world cup final on their home ground again.  Ireland no doubt will throw everything at them but it won't be enough.  NZ are back into the final.  Sorry Ireland!

Third Place playoff - England v Ireland
Possibly the least hyped game of the competition and one no one really wants to play.  Whilst both teams won't really be up for this in world cup terms, the Irish love beating England at pretty much anything and everything so I reckon they'll win this.  But really, does anyone care?

The Final - New Zealand v Australia
So it comes down to this.  Six weeks of rugby and we're back to a repeat of the Tri-Nations decider which Australia took.  This will be Australia's 4th final after winning twice previously.  New Zealand are in their 3rd, winning the first ever world cup back in 1987.  When these teams play each other they're normally not games that disappoint - I hope this one isn't and that the pressure won't get to either of the teams.  It will though, and that favours New Zealand.  They have the experience throughout the side to maintain cool heads under what will be huge pressure from the New Zealand public.

This world cup is NZ's. I can't see it any other way - even with the history of failure that belongs to NZ since 1987. 

Pool D

So, the last of the groups and possibly the hardest one of all to try and call.  Pool D sees the following teams all lining up to take lumps out of each other!!

• Fiji
• Namibia
• Samoa
• South Africa
• Wales

Normally I’d start with the “crunch match” which on first glance you’d say would be South Africa v Wales.  However to start off with I’m just going to start with Wales in general for the very good reason that this group is possibly the ghost of world cups past for Wales!!

Wales seemingly don’t like playing the Pacific teams in World Cups having been knocked out in the group stages in 1999 and 2007 after losing to Samoa and Fiji respectively.  Then back in 2009 Wales struggled past Samoa 17-13 in a friendly.  Back in the autumn of 2010 Wales managed only a 16-16 draw with Fiji in Cardiff.  So this throws up a bit a quandary which is dependent on what Wales team has landed in New Zealand.  Will it be a confident, free flowing team that has power enough in the forwards to dominate the islanders and can then spin out to James Hook to start a penetrating attack?  Or will it be a self doubting, pressurized team that stands off the likes of Alex Tuilagi and let them run at them, get their tails up and start scoring ??

I think there’s a couple of things that will favour Wales this time around.  One will probably be the weather.  A wet ball will mean more forward play where Wales should beat both Fiji and Samoa.  Windy conditions will mean tougher kicking conditions and in Stephen Jones and James Hook, Wales have two world class goalkickers which can keep the scoreline ticking over.  Fiji look dangerous and have a lot of amazingly skilled players like Albert Vulivuli and Gabriele Lovobalavu who will cause problems.  Even without the weather being a big part of the game I think Wales’ preparation has been pretty good.  They’ve spent a long time in camp together and will have learnt a lot about Fiji from their encounter in 2010 so I think they’ll win that one.

The group crunch game in this instance could be Wales v Samoa (presuming that South Africa will win all their matches).  I’m going to maintain a confidence in Wales and will say they’ll beat Samoa and qualify in second place behind South Africa.

As for South Africa, they’re not the team they were in 2007.  Their forwards are still mightily impressive and I’ll be keeping an eye out in the Wales match for the battle between Tendai‘The Beast’ Mtawarira v Adam Jones.  A lot was made of Mtwarira before the 2009 Lions series and yes in the first test match he did take Phil Vickery apart.  But against Adam Jones he was taught a bit of a lesson and until Jones got injured ‘The Beast’ wasn’t very beast like – even Vickery came back and got a little revenge.  Behind the scrum, South Africa look powerful but lack some of the dynamic play so providing you’ve got an organized and powerful defense then they’re probably beatable.

That leaves the whipping boys that will be Namibia.  Well, I expect that they’ll leave a few marks on all of the teams they play, but I can’t see them winning a game this time round though.

Pool C

Next up on the tour of the groups is Pool C.  Pool C is made up of the following:

• Australia
• Ireland
• Italy 
• Russia
• USA

So as is seemingly tradition lets start with the crunch match which will in all likelihood will determine the group winners - Australia v Ireland.  Having won the Tri Nations I'd say that Australia are probably the form team coming in to this world cup.  In selecting Quade-Cooper at fly half, Robbie Deans has set his stall out for attacking, heads up rugby.  They've even managed to sort out their scrum which looks passable by international standards.  It is though, a confident team that can leave the versatile Giteau at home - could this have been a mistake if injuries start to pile up??

Ireland on the other hand come into the world cup off the back of four warm up defeats and by their now high standards, a relatively poor 6 Nations.  Is this a team on the decline??  I think not.  Whilst they are over reliant on Brian O'Driscoll, they also have a scrum and set piece that can do damage.  Sexton is maturing into a fine player.  Sean O'Brien has the potential to be one of the stars of the tournament and an Irish back three of Bowe, Trimble and Kearney will pose problems to most teams.

With all that in mind I think Australia will just squeeze past the Irish.  The weather could well favour Ireland though so I may come back and change this verdict based on what part God chooses to play.  Ireland v Italy could be a potential slip up for Ireland.  Hopefully the Irish will have learnt from their last meeting where they scraped to a win in Rome.  Italy have some capable players in the scrum, Sergio Parisse being on of the top five number 8's in the world - however behind the scrum they're still lacking.  They will be buoyed by their win against France in the Spring, but I can't see the Irish being as poor as they were last time out.

As for the rest of the group, Russia seem to be an up and coming powerhouse in the second tier of European rugby, they could give the USA and maybe Italy a good match but otherwise the group will probably go to form with Australia topping it followed by Ireland.

Incidentally, found this video tribute to Sean O'Brien earlier - well worth a watch.  Look out for the try versus Newport Gwent Dragons:

Pool B

And so we move on to Pool B in how I think the world cup will play.  Pool B's characters are:

• Argentina
• England
• Georgia
• Romania
• Scotland

This is one of the more tastier of groups with a couple of crunch matches involving highly rated teams.

First of those matches involves two of RWC 2007's semi-finalists; England and Argentina.  Whilst it's great that Argentina continue to develop as rugby playing nation, they're not the same team that played in France.  They're missing their talismanic fly-half come full back Juan Martin Hernandez and whilst Contepomi is a good fly-half who can control a game, he lacks that spark of unpredictability that Hernandez has.  I see England winning the encounter - though it'll be a close match and I'll spend most of it on the edge of my seat!!

I also think England will beat Scotland, again it'll be a close match and again the forwards will probably dominate.  Richie Gray came to the fore in the last 6 Nations and looks to be a great player for Scotland.  Him and Euan Murray aside (though Murray hasn't been making the headlines that he once did) I think pack for pack England are better.  Behind the pack neither teams are on a par with any of the Tri Nations but England just edge it.

Scotland v Argentina then will probably be the battle for the second qualifying spot - and this is a really tough one to call.  Neither side have played many warm up games, the one result of note would be Scotland beating Ireland whilst Argentina struggled past a Worcester team.  On that you'd give it to Scotland but honestly, I'm just not sure.  I have a gut feeling Argentina might just edge it.

Georgia and Romania make up the rest of the pool.  Romania are without one of their better players after their winger Catalin Fercu didn't want to make such a long flight (a la Dennis Bergkamp!).  Romania were likely to lose every match anyway and this won't change anything.  Georgia have the ability to cause an upset - they almost did against Ireland in 2007 and there's no reason why they shouldn't challenge any of the top three.


So, with a gut feel ruling one decision I see England and Argentina progressing from this group. 

Pool A

So like all good rugby fans, I along with friends, colleagues and family (namely my five year old daughter likes teams based on the colour of their shirts) have been deliberating on who is going to win the World Cup in New Zealand. 

I thought I'd write about my thoughts on the subject going through the groups and then the knockout stages which would then give us a final and ultimately a winner.  So for now, lets start with Pool A as it seems the logical place to begin.

So Pool A looks like this:

• Canada
• France
• Japan
• New Zealand
• Tonga

Pretty much all the groups come down to one (maybe two) match ups and in this one it's New Zeland v France (24th September).  France have been a thorn in the New Zealand side in past world cups, knocking them out in both 1999 and 2007, so world cup form would suggest a French win.  France also had some impressive outings against Ireland in their warm up games, however New Zealand are on home soil and desperate to exact some sort of revenge for 2007 where they felt robbed, some highlights below:

I'll pip for New Zealand in this match - and I think it could be by quite a high scoring match.

France will go into the quarter finals as runners up but where does that leave the other teams - are there going to be any shocks in this group?  Well, in my opinion, no.  Both France and New Zealand will win all their matches - Tonga might put up some resistance but I don't think they'll have enough to beat either though Tonga v Japan could be a good match up.

So that's our first two qualifiers through - Pool B later on!

And I'm back

So firstly - apologies - I've been a bit shit at this blogging thing over the last few months!!!  But with the RWC now literally round the corner it seems a great time to start over again!!

 

So, no doubt we're all looking forward to the world cup but are all our local clubs?  Last weekend marked the start of the Aviva Premiership and the RaboDirect PRO12 (formally known as the catchier Magners League) and whilst listening to a radio phone in one caller asked why the rugby club season carries on regardless of the fact that there are internationals when the football equivalents don't.  

There was some discussion as to what system is better but obviously the two sports and the organisations behind them (UEFA/FIFA vs IRB) are inherently different - not to mention the length of time that football has been professional versus rugby.  All this leads to us not really comparing apples with apples. 

But lets play along a little while and let see which one is better.  I personally like the fact that life carries on when the countries are knocking the crap out of each other.  Primarily because it gives clubs the chance to blood youngsters at a senior level.  It also makes the whole competition a little more competitive - Leicester losing to Exeter at Welford Road this weekend was a prime example.  Imagine Man Utd playing Swansea with both teams missing their international stars - you probably wouldn't be so quick to put all your money on Man Utd.

The negatives are mainly financial - because of having loads of players away for quite long periods of time, clubs have to invest in bigger squads.  With the salary cap in place in England this could be seen to give clubs with no salary cap in other European countries a bigger chance to beat English clubs.  This is detrimental to the Heineken Cup which prides itself on being one of the two premier club competitions in the world.  If one half of the competition isn't up to much then surely it's not that good a competition versus the Super 15.

The other main negative is towards season ticket holders.  If you're fortunate enough to have a season ticket to your club side, wouldn't you want to see your team competitive in every match - and if half the squad are away then are they?  Of course this is probably balanced out by the pricing of the ticket, but still ........

Lastly - I made the argument about youngsters being blooded in.  The counter to that is that clubs actually invest in a few older players that aren't going to be playing the internationals - from both the northern but more specifically the southern hemisphere - but still have the quality to go out and win games.  The end of the RWC this year will no doubt start a stream of players arriving on our shores from the southern hemisphere - Stephen Donald to Bath and John Smit to Saracens to name but two.

So where does this leave us - well between a rock and a hard place.  The simple fact is that because of the way the earth revolves round the sun, the rugby world doesn't have an "international season".  Nor does football, but football basically revolves around the European calendar with the knowledge that most of the top players ply their trade in Europe.  That's not the case for rugby and never will be - so we'll never have a decision that pleases everyone!