Two weeks without more Six Nations games always seems to be a long time to wait when the tournament is on! But now we're back in to fall swing as we enter the second half of the competition. Here's my views on what could happen this weekend.
Italy v France
France will be hurting after losing to England last time out and I fear they may take that anger out on the Italians. It's very difficult to picture anything other than France winning pretty comfortably. The one shock is that Chabal has retained his place in the team ahead of Harinordoquy. I'm a big fan of Chabal - but not really in a rugby sense. On his day yes he's magnificent but his day is few and far between. On the flip side Harinordoquy is pretty darn good most of the time. I appreciate it's "only" Italy but still, I think this may be an error in judgement from Monsieur Lievremont. Yachvili is out because of injury but I think Morgan Parra is more than capable of filling that hole.
As for Italy, well I hope they bring the performance they had against Ireland to the table to make it a little more interesting. I cant see where they could possibly break through the French defence - it's far too disciplined for that. As I've said before - they need some decent backs to really start making the step up. The only way you can see them winning is by grinding out a result.
Wales v Ireland
This is a tough one to call. Irish teams seem to love playing in Wales, yet you sense that Wales are desperate to turn in a good performance (which despite two wins so far would be their first decent outing).
Ireland pretty much field their strongest available side - Rob Kearney being the only noticable absentee. O'Gara keeps his place ahead of Sexton and is two points away from notching up over 1,000 points in test rugby. O'Gara will no doubt play his usual game of kicking the ball 95% of the time and push Wales back into their half. Unlike Scotland though, Wales are much more likely to break from deep. Ireland need to seriously cut down on the amount of penalties they give away. Jonathan Kaplan is the referee which would be a worry if I were wearing a green jersey come Saturday.
As for Wales, well James Hook stays at 10 and I hope he's been told to go out and play like James Hook! Jonathan Davies is back at inside centre and I hope that the two of them can finally release Jamie Roberts. Roberts should get past O'Gara and D'Arcy fairly simply (on his day) but there should be an almighty collision when he gets to O'Driscoll. I'm hoping that we see plenty of those. Wales are still without their first choice front row and I fear that the Irish just about edge the battle of the second row.
When it comes to each teams back row it'll be an interesting contest. Wales have two young dynamic flankers in Warburton and Lydiate, anchored by Jones at No.8. There'll be up against Wallace, O'Brien and Heaslip in green. Again a fascinating contest.
I keep weighing up all these factors in my head and I simply do not know who's going to win! If you're going to threaten me with a gun to make a call though I'll go with the Irish. Just. No, the Welsh.
Irish.
England v Scotland.
On paper and past performances so far this year this is a much simpler game to decide on. Surely it's England all the way. Surely.
Well yes - England probably will win, but the Scottish have a nasty habit of turning up against England and causing real problems. Lets not forget they did pretty well against France had a shocker against Wales but then didn't do so badly against Ireland two weeks ago. I'm not sure what the odds are on Scotland not scoring a try but I'd say they're pretty low given that match against Ireland - they never looked like threatening the line and England's defence on the whole has been pretty brutal so far in this championship.
Scotland need to cut out on the errors. Unlike Ireland where they give away penalties the Scottish seem intent on just giving the opposition the ball. O'Gara pinned Scotland back into their own half numerous times and it must be massivley depressing to get all the way into the opposition 22 to then just have to trudge back to your own half without putting points onto the board.
I wouldn't expect England to kick quite as much as Ireland did against Scotland - that's not their game at the moment. England will run from deep again looking for the breaks, if they're not there, the forwards will be allowed a shot at blasting their way through before ultimatletly getting Youngs to snipe a hole, dart through it and if not score himself, set someone else up for the points. Great to see Croft back into the team - he adds another dimension to the pack and lineout. Rightly so, Johnson hasn't disrupted his starting XV as it'd be difficult to drop any of them, but I'm sure he'll come off the bench at some point.
It'll take a massive performance from Scotland and a seriously out of character performance from England (maybe an England performance from the Andy Robinson era!) for Scotland to win on Sunday. Stranger things have happened of course but my money is on England.
