Why New Zealand might not win the world cup

So, we've reached the final.  As expected New Zealand are there and just like 1987 they're playing the French.  The French have been far from convincing in this world cup - the fact that they're in the final is a surprise to match that of England reaching the final in 2007!

David Kirk kisses the trophy in 1987

Made to look pedestrian against New Zealand in the group stage, they went on to a shock loss against Tonga amid stories of discontentment amongst the camp.  In the quarter finals they got past a sluggish, poor English side who still nearly came back to take the win.  Then in the semi final they managed to beat a team, cruelly reduced to 14 men for a vast majority of the match by a mere point.  Lets face it, with better execution Wales probably should have won, irregardless of being a man down for an hour.

The challenge that pretty much gave France a passage into the Final

New Zealand meanwhile breezed through their group, eased past a dogged Argentina side and then strangled the life out of Australia in a semi-final they never looked like losing.

So, New Zealand all the way then - job done.  Even some bookmakers have already started paying out on New Zealand lifting the Webb-Ellis cup. 

Now before I start off this segment let it be known that I too can't really see anything but an All Black win.  But I wanted to be a little different so am going to look at why it could be the French lifting the cup come Sunday.

Let's start with the age old fact that New Zealand have choked in every tournament since 1987.  That's a lot of strangulation!  This is the biggest match since they've played since 1987, the weight of expectation is huge and with them being so overwhelming favourites it probably makes the weight even heavier.  So they could be prime to choke!

How apt!

The injuries have been mounting up - noticably to Dan Carter.  When he went down with a groin injury the whole of New Zealand started to play with those worry beads a little more, whilst the whole of the rest of the world were given a little more hope!  The lack of experience behind Dan Carter was suddenly exposed and all that pressure was heaped onto Colin Slade.  Slade did ok but at times looked a little like a rabbit in the headlights.  And then he too went down with a similar injury and suddenly they were down to their third string fly half!  Aaron Cruden will wear that famous number 10 jersey come the final.  Against Australia he looked alright and showed some flashes of brilliance - but this is a world cup final, a whole new ball game so to speak.

Apparently the great Ritchie McCaw is also injured.  Well he was superb against the Australians and if thats him injured then I'll take him in the England side any day of the week and twice on Sunday!

McCaw back to his best

Turning now to the French.  As I've said, they've been far from convincing, no one is backing them and everyone is saying they might as well not turn up.  Wouldn't it be typical of the French to turn up on Sunday and shock the world?  Within the squad they've got the skill set and the brute force to put up a challenge and had they not been so ordinary for the last few weeks then people would probably be saying that they'd stand a half decent chance.

Could they ?

As I said I don't see New Zealand losing this time, but there are reasons why they might.  If this was being played in any other country other than New Zealand then the doubts would probably be even bigger.  But if you're French - there is some hope!

The shambles that was England at RWC 2011

Well what a disaster that was.  You’d think we’d be used to it after years of following England, but this world cup has plumbed the depths.  Maybe we were spoilt after 2007 and really, we didn’t deserve to be in the final.  We’ve probably had this coming for a while, well now it’s arrived.

Home time lads, see you on the flight

It’s difficult to know where to start with these as there were so many things that were wrong with England’s world cup campaign.  I’m not going to dissect every last one of them as quite frankly there are more experienced, in the know people who have already done that.  I’ll pick out a few points that I feel need addressing – from a supporters point of view.

If you want a fuller reaction then I’ve read two very good reports – one from Brian Moore (love him or loathe him he writes very well) in The Telegraph and the other from Tom Fordyce on the BBC.

The RFU

Let’s start at the top.  Well, for starters we can’t really as there is still no CEO in place.  Whilst he is only acting in the role, Martyn Thomas is still the power at RFU HQ.  I’m sure he’s done a lot for the game that has gone on unseen, however for the supporters it seems that he and the RFU really haven’t done much to improve the senior team.  Will Carling famously described the RFU Committee as “57 old farts” and on the face of it, it feels that not a lot has really changed.

 Many of my points in this blog are going to come with a line similar to “we need fresh thinking, a clean sheet and to start again”.  This is true to the RFU – get some new people in at the top of the game who can take England rugby in a new direction – because the current one isn’t working.

Also – what has Rob Andrew done since he was appointed, made redundant and reappointed?  It’s not just the personnel that need replacing, it’s the whole structure - with Rob Andrew one of the first people out of the door.

The Manager

As a player Martin Johnson was one of the greatest and would always be considered in a best ever XV – that’s a whole other blog post just there.  However as a manager he hasn’t lived up to the high standards he set as a player.  Through their world cup campaign there have been issues both on and off the field that have been troubling all concerned.

From his past (and lets face it, general appearance!) you’d expect Johnson to be a stern disciplinarian in the mould of Sir Alex Ferguson.  Yes, rugby players like to have a beer after a match and in no way would I want that tradition to end.  However, lads, you're in a world cup, you're professional athletes and in this day and age - everyone has a camera in their pocket!  Johnson loyally stood by his troops and defended them to the hilt - we don't know what was said behind closed doors but I can hope it was something along the lines of "sort yourselves out" - but with more profound language.  However from the reaction of the players I'm not 100% sure anything like that was said at all.

Did the England players encounter this Johnson ?  I think not

Will he stay or will he go?  I want him to stay but I think he'll go, which is a shame as I feel the people above him are ultimatley more responsible

The Coaches

John Wells and Mike Ford have been at the helm for far too long.  The RFU made a massive, huge fuck up when they didn't hire Shaun Edwards and stuck with these two.

Shaun Edwards wanted the job but the RFU wouldn't agree to his terms of doing it part time - fools!

The forwards haven't looked as dynamic as any other top class team.  They're English forwards of old, big lumbering oaths with the skill set to match as soon as they put on the England jersey.  That was fine in 1991, not anymore!  All the top teams in the world have flankers that can get down and do the dirty work and steal the ball - except England, and it shows.  The most annoying thing is that there is massive potential there - their club form points to this.  So why can't they do it for England?  Well, I think we all know why.  Do the decent thing John, stand aside and let someone else have a go.

England had been lauded as having a strong defence and it's true in the group stages they didn't give away too many trys.  But not once in the group games against Argentina or Scotland did I not sit nervously on the edge of my chair waiting for them to go over for a try.  France proved how easy it is to score against us.  Thank god we didn't have to play Wales, Australia or NZ who score tries for fun against better defences.

The once great tackler, Wilkinson last gasp tackle to try and stop a soft French try

The other two - Brian Smith and Graham Rowntree - just about escape criticism.  The scrum was pretty good though hindered by Sheridan leaving injured - so well done Graham.  In attack England looked pretty woeful and for this Brian Smith should be out on his ear but I can't help feeling that he's being hindered by the determination of others to play forwards rugby.  For this, in a new set up I say he should be given another chance.

The Players

I've already had a rant about the discipline off the pitch so I won't go there again.  Discipline on the pitch almost cost them two games in the group stage.  They improved in the QF, just.  Louis Deacon running from a blatant offside position to make a tackle epitomised the whole tournament.  The infringements that the England team were committing didn't give the referee a chance to give them the benefit of the doubt - they were so blatant it was infuriating!! 

Now we're at the end of one world cup we need to shed off anyone that's not going to be playing in 2015 and start building anew.  This means losing:

Andrew Sheridan
Jonny Wilkinson
Mike Tindall
Lee Mears
Lewis Moody
Nick Easter
Shontayne Hape
Thomas Waldron (not that he ever played in the first place)
Mark Cueto
Simon Shaw (though he's pretty much retired anyway)
Steve Thompson

Lets put more youth in the team - they're going to lose some matches to start off with but thats part of the learning curve.  Let's make sure that they're well bedded in and ready to perform come RWC 2015.

Time to give these lads a go?  England U-20 squad winning the 2011 U-20 6 Nations

They also need to take responsibility for themselves.  Please, please, please don't go the same way that premiership footballers (well, nearly all professional footballers) have and become complete cocks who are overpaid and think they rule the world.  I hope they've learnt from this campaign and when future campaigns come along they put the learning into practice.

The losing bonus point

I had a good rant about this to the wife the other evening and she mentioned that instead of moaning to her I should put it here, as this is what this blog is for - sort of!

The basic crux of the matter is this.  Bonus points for scoring a set number of trys is good - it encourages attacking play which makes the game more compelling for the spectator which should help to keep attendances and viewers up.  It also rewards teams for being good - or better than their opposition at least.  All good.

Should there also be a bonus point for dramatic try scoring dives ?!!?

Then you can get a bonus point for losing narrowly.  Lets get this straight - you get rewarded, for losing.  For being the worse team, you get a reward. 

Nevermind, you lost.  Here have a point to cheer you up.

This has all come about after France lost to Tonga but still qualified because they got a losing bonus point.  Here was me hoping that France had been knocked out and that England would have the task of taking on a lesser nation in the quarter finals. 

Nevermind lads, losing bonus point was all we needed

The counter argument is that it gives a team who are likely to lose something to play for instead of letting the game slide into a dull win.  I'm sorry - aren't the people playing meant to be professional.  Irrespective of what the scoreline is - shouldn't you be busting a gut to go out and try and win?  Everyone loves a good comeback - it's what makes great, memorable sporting occasions (different sport I know, but think Man Utd v Bayern Munich in 1999, or France v New Zealand in the 1999 world cup).

My personal opinion is that at the end of the day, the losing bonus point is just a way to reward mediocrity and should be disposed of.  If you lose, you lose.  Tough shit, but hey, that's sport - and that's why we love it and love winning.

Knockout time!!

Well, we've arrived at the end of the group stages and from here on in it's knockout rugby.

So, what did we all make of the knockout stages???  Well if, like me, you're an England supporter you've probably not really been enjoying it that much!  Still they won every match, scored a few trys and conceded a few less!!  A conversation at the end of a meeting I had today compared the England rugby team to past German football teams - no one really likes how they play and because of that they don't get much credit but they're normally there or there abouts come the latter stages of a tournament.  I guess I'd take a dull tense win over a tight exciting loss.

Team of the tournament so far has to be Ireland, who managed to bugger up my earlier predictions!!  A great performance to get the win against Australia and a strong performance versus Italy to seal their position at the top of the group.  New Zealand we all expected to get through without any hassle.

Duds of the tournament so far has to be France who have not looked anything like a top rugby playing nation.  They've limped through to the quarter finals after losing to Tonga and have lots of infighting which isn't going to improve their situation any.

So what will happen in the quarter finals - here's my view:

Ireland v Wales
Wales ran Ireland close for my team of the tournament so far.  An injection of youth into their team seems to have done the trick since a disappointing Six Nations.  They were unlucky not to beat South Africa in their opening match, but have followed that up with some convincing wins, none more so then their thrashing of Fiji at the weekend.

As I said above, Ireland have looked good in the tournament so far.  Sean O'Brien has been the hit that everyone thought he would.  I enjoyed their forwards performance versus Italy last weekend which was no doubt brought on by Nick Mallet's stupid remarks about Italy being superior in the scrum.  Come on mate, Ireland have got a class set of forwards who would have the ability to challenge most teams front eight - firing them up anymore is just silly!!


This is probably the tightest of all the matches to call but I'm going to give it to the Irish.  I think they're slightly more battle hardened which will just about give them the edge over youthful exuberance that the Welsh currently offer.  On this form though watch out for Wales in the 2012 Six Nations.

England v France
This one should be a little more straight forward to call simply because I don't think that the French are "all there" when it comes to their tournament thus far.


There is a little nagging doubt in my head though and it goes a little something like this - France haven't beaten England for quite a while (and certainly not in a world cup) - is it about time they did?  Also, France are playing so badly that wouldn't it be just like them to turn up and beat England?  Lastly, France love beating England - they may just get it together enough to beat them.

So, straight forward its not.  England have looked sluggish in attack though pretty good in defence and the penalty count was better versus Scotland.  I'll let me heart decide here and go with an England win

(NB - this gives us a semi-final of Ireland v England which for me, on a personal point of view is a lose lose sitation.  If England win I get it in the neck from the wife, we'll probably win via some dodgy decision and I'll never hear the end of it from a lot of Irish acquaintances.  And if Ireland win I'll be pissed off that England have lost and then never hear the end of it from a lot of Irish acquaintances!!).

Australia v South Africa
This is another tough one to call.  Bar the result against Ireland, Australia have been playing well, and with David Pocock now back in the team they could improve even further.  I still think they've got a very good chance of winning the whole thing - though my confidence in them probably isn't as high as it was before the whole thing kicked off.

South Africa meanwhile are also playing pretty well, though not spectacularly.  The loss of Francois Steyn for the rest of the tournament is a big one though - he's been pretty much their star performer throughout the group stage.  The South African forwards had a tough match against Wales and I don't think they're the unit they once were.  Behind the scrum I now don't see much that I think would really worry a top international team that much - Habana is not the same player he was four years ago.

So that means I'm going to plump for an Australia win, though I wouldn't be shocked if I were wrong!!

New Zealand v Argentina
Probably the easiest of all the matches to call!  Losing Dan Carter is a devestating loss to the All Blacks.  Slade is good but he's not got anywhere near enough experience to lead the back line.  If ever there was a time to ignore the normal rules and pick up the phone to Nick Evans it's probably now for Graham Henry.

Even without the majestical Carter, the All Blacks will have enough to beat Argentina.  Whilst they're not as good as they were four years ago Argentina have shown that they're still a force to be reckoned with.  Lets face it, England were lucky to beat them and against Scotland, Argentina were the better team and deserved their win.  New Zealand will be too powerful up front and even without Carter, too dynamic, quick and explosive in the backs.  Sonny Bill Williams is well on his way to being one of the players of the tournament so far - he's been simply brilliant.  I keep thinking sooner or later one of those offloads will go wrong - but they never seem to.  I'd almost be inclined to try him at fly half!

So, thats that.  Semi finals will look like this:
Ireland v England (shudder)
Australia v New Zealand

North against South come the final.  Lots of talk about how great that is - but worth bearing in mind there's only ever been one final that has been a southern hemisphere exclusive (South Africa vs New Zealand in 1995) so it shouldn't be that big deal!