Pool D

So, the last of the groups and possibly the hardest one of all to try and call.  Pool D sees the following teams all lining up to take lumps out of each other!!

• Fiji
• Namibia
• Samoa
• South Africa
• Wales

Normally I’d start with the “crunch match” which on first glance you’d say would be South Africa v Wales.  However to start off with I’m just going to start with Wales in general for the very good reason that this group is possibly the ghost of world cups past for Wales!!

Wales seemingly don’t like playing the Pacific teams in World Cups having been knocked out in the group stages in 1999 and 2007 after losing to Samoa and Fiji respectively.  Then back in 2009 Wales struggled past Samoa 17-13 in a friendly.  Back in the autumn of 2010 Wales managed only a 16-16 draw with Fiji in Cardiff.  So this throws up a bit a quandary which is dependent on what Wales team has landed in New Zealand.  Will it be a confident, free flowing team that has power enough in the forwards to dominate the islanders and can then spin out to James Hook to start a penetrating attack?  Or will it be a self doubting, pressurized team that stands off the likes of Alex Tuilagi and let them run at them, get their tails up and start scoring ??

I think there’s a couple of things that will favour Wales this time around.  One will probably be the weather.  A wet ball will mean more forward play where Wales should beat both Fiji and Samoa.  Windy conditions will mean tougher kicking conditions and in Stephen Jones and James Hook, Wales have two world class goalkickers which can keep the scoreline ticking over.  Fiji look dangerous and have a lot of amazingly skilled players like Albert Vulivuli and Gabriele Lovobalavu who will cause problems.  Even without the weather being a big part of the game I think Wales’ preparation has been pretty good.  They’ve spent a long time in camp together and will have learnt a lot about Fiji from their encounter in 2010 so I think they’ll win that one.

The group crunch game in this instance could be Wales v Samoa (presuming that South Africa will win all their matches).  I’m going to maintain a confidence in Wales and will say they’ll beat Samoa and qualify in second place behind South Africa.

As for South Africa, they’re not the team they were in 2007.  Their forwards are still mightily impressive and I’ll be keeping an eye out in the Wales match for the battle between Tendai‘The Beast’ Mtawarira v Adam Jones.  A lot was made of Mtwarira before the 2009 Lions series and yes in the first test match he did take Phil Vickery apart.  But against Adam Jones he was taught a bit of a lesson and until Jones got injured ‘The Beast’ wasn’t very beast like – even Vickery came back and got a little revenge.  Behind the scrum, South Africa look powerful but lack some of the dynamic play so providing you’ve got an organized and powerful defense then they’re probably beatable.

That leaves the whipping boys that will be Namibia.  Well, I expect that they’ll leave a few marks on all of the teams they play, but I can’t see them winning a game this time round though.