And I'm back

So firstly - apologies - I've been a bit shit at this blogging thing over the last few months!!!  But with the RWC now literally round the corner it seems a great time to start over again!!

 

So, no doubt we're all looking forward to the world cup but are all our local clubs?  Last weekend marked the start of the Aviva Premiership and the RaboDirect PRO12 (formally known as the catchier Magners League) and whilst listening to a radio phone in one caller asked why the rugby club season carries on regardless of the fact that there are internationals when the football equivalents don't.  

There was some discussion as to what system is better but obviously the two sports and the organisations behind them (UEFA/FIFA vs IRB) are inherently different - not to mention the length of time that football has been professional versus rugby.  All this leads to us not really comparing apples with apples. 

But lets play along a little while and let see which one is better.  I personally like the fact that life carries on when the countries are knocking the crap out of each other.  Primarily because it gives clubs the chance to blood youngsters at a senior level.  It also makes the whole competition a little more competitive - Leicester losing to Exeter at Welford Road this weekend was a prime example.  Imagine Man Utd playing Swansea with both teams missing their international stars - you probably wouldn't be so quick to put all your money on Man Utd.

The negatives are mainly financial - because of having loads of players away for quite long periods of time, clubs have to invest in bigger squads.  With the salary cap in place in England this could be seen to give clubs with no salary cap in other European countries a bigger chance to beat English clubs.  This is detrimental to the Heineken Cup which prides itself on being one of the two premier club competitions in the world.  If one half of the competition isn't up to much then surely it's not that good a competition versus the Super 15.

The other main negative is towards season ticket holders.  If you're fortunate enough to have a season ticket to your club side, wouldn't you want to see your team competitive in every match - and if half the squad are away then are they?  Of course this is probably balanced out by the pricing of the ticket, but still ........

Lastly - I made the argument about youngsters being blooded in.  The counter to that is that clubs actually invest in a few older players that aren't going to be playing the internationals - from both the northern but more specifically the southern hemisphere - but still have the quality to go out and win games.  The end of the RWC this year will no doubt start a stream of players arriving on our shores from the southern hemisphere - Stephen Donald to Bath and John Smit to Saracens to name but two.

So where does this leave us - well between a rock and a hard place.  The simple fact is that because of the way the earth revolves round the sun, the rugby world doesn't have an "international season".  Nor does football, but football basically revolves around the European calendar with the knowledge that most of the top players ply their trade in Europe.  That's not the case for rugby and never will be - so we'll never have a decision that pleases everyone!

The next installment

Two weeks without more Six Nations games always seems to be a long time to wait when the tournament is on!  But now we're back in to fall swing as we enter the second half of the competition.  Here's my views on what could happen this weekend.

Italy v France

France will be hurting after losing to England last time out and I fear they may take that anger out on the Italians.  It's very difficult to picture anything other than France winning pretty comfortably.  The one shock is that Chabal has retained his place in the team ahead of Harinordoquy.  I'm a big fan of Chabal - but not really in a rugby sense.  On his day yes he's magnificent but his day is few and far between.  On the flip side Harinordoquy is pretty darn good most of the time.  I appreciate it's "only" Italy but still, I think this may be an error in judgement from Monsieur Lievremont.  Yachvili is out because of injury but I think Morgan Parra is more than capable of filling that hole. 

As for Italy, well I hope they bring the performance they had against Ireland to the table to make it a little more interesting.  I cant see where they could possibly break through the French defence - it's far too disciplined for that.  As I've said before - they need some decent backs to really start making the step up.  The only way you can see them winning is by grinding out a result.

Wales v Ireland

This is a tough one to call.  Irish teams seem to love playing in Wales, yet you sense that Wales are desperate to turn in a good performance (which despite two wins so far would be their first decent outing).

Ireland pretty much field their strongest available side - Rob Kearney being the only noticable absentee.  O'Gara keeps his place ahead of Sexton and is two points away from notching up over 1,000 points in test rugby.  O'Gara will no doubt play his usual game of kicking the ball 95% of the time and push Wales back into their half.  Unlike Scotland though, Wales are much more likely to break from deep.  Ireland need to seriously cut down on the amount of penalties they give away.  Jonathan Kaplan is the referee which would be a worry if I were wearing a green jersey come Saturday.

As for Wales, well James Hook stays at 10 and I hope he's been told to go out and play like James Hook!  Jonathan Davies is back at inside centre and I hope that the two of them can finally release Jamie Roberts.  Roberts should get past O'Gara and D'Arcy fairly simply (on his day) but there should be an almighty collision when he gets to O'Driscoll.  I'm hoping that we see plenty of those.  Wales are still without their first choice front row and I fear that the Irish just about edge the battle of the second row.

When it comes to each teams back row it'll be an interesting contest.  Wales have two young dynamic flankers in Warburton and Lydiate, anchored by Jones at No.8.  There'll be up against Wallace, O'Brien and Heaslip in green.  Again a fascinating contest.

I keep weighing up all these factors in my head and I simply do not know who's going to win!  If you're going to threaten me with a gun to make a call though I'll go with the Irish.  Just.  No, the Welsh.

Irish.

England v Scotland.

On paper and past performances so far this year this is a much simpler game to decide on.  Surely it's England all the way.  Surely.

Well yes - England probably will win, but the Scottish have a nasty habit of turning up against England and causing real problems.  Lets not forget they did pretty well against France had a shocker against Wales but then didn't do so badly against Ireland two weeks ago.  I'm not sure what the odds are on Scotland not scoring a try but I'd say they're pretty low given that match against Ireland - they never looked like threatening the line and England's defence on the whole has been pretty brutal so far in this championship.

Scotland need to cut out on the errors.  Unlike Ireland where they give away penalties the Scottish seem intent on just giving the opposition the ball.  O'Gara pinned Scotland back into their own half numerous times and it must be massivley depressing to get all the way into the opposition 22 to then just have to trudge back to your own half without putting points onto the board.

I wouldn't expect England to kick quite as much as Ireland did against Scotland - that's not their game at the moment.  England will run from deep again looking for the breaks, if they're not there, the forwards will be allowed a shot at blasting their way through before ultimatletly getting Youngs to snipe a hole, dart through it and if not score himself, set someone else up for the points.  Great to see Croft back into the team - he adds another dimension to the pack and lineout.  Rightly so, Johnson hasn't disrupted his starting XV as it'd be difficult to drop any of them, but I'm sure he'll come off the bench at some point.

It'll take a massive performance from Scotland and a seriously out of character performance from England (maybe an England performance from the Andy Robinson era!) for Scotland to win on Sunday.  Stranger things have happened of course but my money is on England.

Over half way now

Another weekend of the 6N down, only two more to go and the English are determined not to start counting chickens quite yet.  Here's my take on the weekend games:

Italy 16 v 24 Wales

I thought Wales might try and use this game to break out from the rut they've been experiencing recently.  They've now won two games after their run of losses but I still think this performance was well below par.

The Italians naturally fronted up well, their pack is as physical as any led from the back by a brilliant captain.  However the back line is still missing a lot of quality.  Italy have tried importing players from abroad who have a hint of Italian blood (I think the lasagna I've just eaten might qualify me to play for them!) but things still aren't clicking.  The half backs are from being fit to play Test rugby and it doesn't get much better the further back you go.  Only Bergamascu is of test standard and lets face it, he's never going to get close to a World XV! 

As for Wales - well they have the backs, they just seem intent on not really using them.  My memory isn't brilliant I'll grant you, but I barely remember Jamie Roberts getting his hands on the ball.  Here, the Welsh possess what was once one of the most formidable weapons of attack - yet they never pull the trigger.  Hook needs more consistent time at 10 and told to go out and play his usual game.  Mike Phillips is also still struggling to make an impact this year.  Lee Byrne showed improvements in this game but he's still short of the form that he's demonstrated in previous years.

As for the next games, Italy take on France.  Their one advantage is that its in Rome but I don't really give them much hope!  The Welsh host Ireland in Cardiff.  The one thing that might work for them is the amount of penalties they might get.  The Irish defence is strong though so Wales will have to work bloody hard for any openings.

England 17 v 9 France

Ooooooh that was a tight brutal match!  As fun as it's been to watch England's backs play with flair and penache, it was equally fun to see England's forwards step up and play brilliantly to win a tough match.

This was a classic game of two halves, the French probably edging the first and were a kick away from going in with a 9-12 lead.  England came out for the second half firing on all cylinders though and from the off made a chance and took it.  Ben Foden hasn't been getting the plaudits of his Northampton team mate, but he's just as good and well on his way to being a great player.  I think over the next few games we may see him running from deep a bit more a la Jason Robinson.

England did give some daft penalties away in the first half and France on the whole took advantage.  However whilst they battered away at the English line they didnt really create any clear cut chances.  There was of course one which Rougerie (who played well through most of the game) knocked on - much to the relief of every English man, woman and child watching.  Other than that, the English defence looked solid, they'll be tested more severely against the Southern Hemisphere sides but at least they look like they can compete.

England's man of the match, Tom Palmer, played a blinder but then I felt every forward did.  I did worry a little when Sheridan went off but Corbisiero came on and did a superb job.  To think that Lawes, Croft and Moody are all to come back.  Not sure where they're going to go though ?!? 

So next up France are beating Italy in Rome and England host the Scots.  Always a tough match for England but I'd expect them to win it on this form.  It's either going to be another nail biter or a blow out - I wouldnt expect anything in between!

Scotland 18 v 21 Ireland

I thought Scotland improved in this game when compared against their lack lustre performance against Wales.  But there's still the age old problem of their inability to score a try.

Ireland's game again was marred by giving away silly penalties.  When the opposition has a kicker as good as Chris Paterson in the team then you need to be extra disciplined in your own half.  It cost them the game against France and if they keep doing it they'll be punished by both Wales and England.  I'll grudgingly agree that O'Gara played a good tactical game and put Ireland into the right area's of the pitch.  Inside the 22 though I didnt see anything that would worry too many better teams.  The first try was because two players went for the same man and left a hole big enough to get Cipriani's ego through.  The second try, Scotland failed to tackle Heaslip properly from a scrum and get him down on the floor before Reddan walked through another Atlantic size hole.  The third was a bad tackle on O'Gara who's so small he was able to wriggle away and score.

The ref had an indifferent game, the main flaw was the length of time he left between touch-pause-engage.  It seemed like an eon of time which led to some frustrated front rowers and penalties.

Scotland pushed hard through the first half but rarely looked like breaking through.  The Irish defended well, turned the ball over and O'Gara kicked them back into the opposition half.

Next up Ireland travel to Wales and Scotland to Twickenham.  Ireland will have to be as strong in defence but they need to find some more cutting edge in attack - I don't think BoD has been so quiet during a six nations (maybe he's saving himself for England!).  Scotland need to sort out their defence and find something that helps them score a try or two!  I've said it before and I'll no doubt say it again - they're looking like England when Andy Robinson was in charge!

Two down, three to go

Another three games done and a lot of predictions from various pundits thrown into the bin!  So, in chronological order.....

England 59 v 13 Italy

Well after playing down the hype all weekend and saying that "Italy would be a tough match, just look at what happened last week", England go and blow them away with a performance reminiscent of years gone by!

But lets face it - this wasn't the same Italy side that faced off against Ireland.  Maybe that match and what must have been the gut wrenching end result was all too much for the Italians because they never really got going.

That said, England can only play what's in front of them.  More or less everything worked for England, including not one but two swallow dives!  No doubt Sunday morning saw a swathe of young budding rugby players in A+E with broken ribs.  Ashton deservedly picked up the man of the match award - he'll apparently be a marked man in matches to come, but you've got to be quick to mark and then catch him!  The forwards did their job well, there weren't many scrums but the lineout was solid - it'll be more sternly tested against France and Ireland but on evidence so far things are going well.

I'm loathed to get my hopes up too much, maybe, just maybe.........

As for Italy - well, they've got a good chance against Scotland and Wales, they'll need to replicate what they did against Ireland to stand a chance


Scotland 6 v 24 Wales

After their performance in Paris and Wales' performance against England I really thought Scotland stood a good chance here.  How wrong was I (and a number of other commentators it should be said!)?  Scotland weren't the same team that faced France the week before.  I didn't think Wales were all that better than they were against England - they just created and took a couple more chances.

Scotland still lack flair - it was a problem when Robinson managed England as well.  Why they didn't replace Dan Parks earlier in the game is a mystery, he was doing nothing and the Scots have a young fly half, desperately in need of experience just sitting on the bench - whats the worst that could have happened !?!

As for Wales - well they took their chances but asking Hook to play a more conservative game is like asking Ashton not to make a big deal out out of a breakaway try!  Hook is probably their best player at the moment and has potential to be better.  But they seem to be not using him or Jamie Roberts properly.  Get Roberts running at people on the crash ball - he's going to open up gaps and Wales have the runners to take advantage of those gaps!

Wales have the chance to put a stamp on this 6N if they put in a performance against Italy.  Italy should look to forget their last game and focus on putting in the same performance they did against Ireland, if they do and Wales don't up the game then this could be a shock result.

Scotland have Ireland at home - the Irish are suffering in the forwards and their backs aren't what they used to be.  Saying that it's going to take a massively improved performance to beat them - if Scotland play like they did versus Wales then they'll have no hope

Ireland 22 v 25 France

I think everyone expected France to win this fairly comfortably but Ireland ran them hard throughout the game.  Bar a few mistakes and maybe some questionable decisions by the ref, Ireland could have taken this.

So - Ireland, well it was similar to watching England play over the last few years.  There were a few basic handling errors, the odd forward pass and some silly penalties given away.  I've had the odd Irish friend say that the ref made a few bad decisions, but the point is if you're giving away that many penalties in the first place, it's more than likely that you'll get pinged for other more "on the edge" decisions.

The forwards fronted up well and I think having Heaslip back was a massive boost.  Add in Ferris and things will really start hotting up in this department.  David Wallace, once a great great player is looking like he's past it and it may be time to get a younger man in to build up experience before the World Cup.  The second row too is a worry - O'Connell seems to be out of sorts and the pair of them aren't seen running with ball in hand enough at the opposition.  Granted this never used to be the job of a second row, but more and more we're seeing that need in the International game - think Lawes in England or Chabal playing there for France.

As for France - well, there are holes.  With Toby Flood in this form and Ashton or Hape on his shoulder those holes will be seen.  The forwards remain strong but I think if you speed up the game, reduce the time that the ball is in a ruck and move the forwards about the pitch then you'll reduce their impetus.  Their backs are as electric as England's are, however their defence is questionable - as exhibited by Australia in the Autumn

On this performance I think Ireland will beat Scotland though I think it'll be a bit of a battle, especially up front.  I think Ireland still have the class to beat Scotland in the backs though and that should just give them the edge.

As for France playing England at Twickenham.  This could be, as they say, a humdinger of a match!  It's a tough one to call - if they were more frequent in rugby I'd say it's going to be a draw!  As it is, as they're at home I'm going to give it to England.  They're playing well in attack and are better in defence then France are currently